The move to a more independent Senate—now coming on 10 years—has improved the institution’s standing among Canadians but it has not solved the fundamental problem of its legitimacy deficit as an unelected Chamber.
Mark Carney is currently in a ‘sweet spot’ because it’s still relatively early in his government. The time when Canadians could start getting hungry to see results from the prime minister on major projects, such as oil pipelines, might not be until next year, says Nik Nanos.
Current polling shows Prime Minister Mark Carney wins on global leadership. But support for the Conservatives remains strong on domestic issues. And at the end of the day, Canadians usually vote on pocketbook issues.
Two weeks before byelection day, pollsters Nik Nanos and Quito Maggi are predicting a Liberal advantage in the riding of Terrebonne, Que.
So far, it seems the Conservatives are not exactly dismissing the polls like John Diefenbaker once did, nor are they talking about their own internal polls, but they are trying to make it clear that all the bad numbers splashing around the media aren’t causing them to panic.
The Liberals have more than 30-per-cent support in the province, but trying to capitalize on those numbers without a good reason for an election would come at a cost, says Liaison Strategies’ David Valentin.
The Liberals are facing off against a hated foreign foe, they have an energetic leader in charge, and their base is highly motivated. This is what you call a perfect political storm.
Pollsters point to affordability challenges and the potential for rising unemployment rates as circumstances that could derail the Liberals’ popularity. ‘There are a lot of, I’ll call it, negative uncertainties out there that will start to pile up. That’s why I said it’s going to be interesting to see how patient Canadians will be with Mark Carney,’ says Nik Nanos.
Conservatives face a ‘hard choice’ and should ‘be worried’ as the province confronts pushes for independence, says pollster Quito Maggi. ‘They can just hope that there is no election between now and when the referendum takes place.’
The Liberals’ popularity tends to go up when people focus on Canada-U.S. relations, but the party loses points when affordability becomes the central issue, says pollster Greg Lyle.
As the Liberals post their largest lead since Prime Minister Mark Carney was chosen to lead the party, the Conservatives are feeling the pinch from multiple age brackets and a growing chasm among women voters, says Abacus Data CEO David Coletto.
But it’s far less risky to get a majority through floor-crossings than through a snap election, says Ipsos Public Affairs CEO Darrell Bricker.
Pollster Angus Reid says the prime minister is getting ‘top marks’ for his international performance, while Nik Nanos says people like Mark Carney, but he cannot erase Liberal fatigue as the party marks more than 10 years in power.
With the ‘slight uptick’ in the favourability numbers for both the Liberals and Prime Minister Mark Carney’s after the budget and the Ottawa-Alberta MOU, ‘the last thing the Conservatives should be doing is attacking the NDP,’ says pollster Nik Nanos.
And Abacus Data pollster David Coletto says he’s also finding high anxiety among Canadians. ‘There’s not a lot of optimism out there.’
It’s too early to judge Mark Carney’s performance as prime minister and he should be given more time, but the Liberals are losing support because cost-of-living concerns, and the heat is on, say pollsters Nik Nanos and Darrell Bricker.
It may all come down to what issue will prevail: the preferred prime minister or the price of eggs.
When Donald Trump says something about Canada, it favours the Liberals, and when he’s not focused on Canada, it favours the Conservatives, says pollster Nik Nanos. Meanwhile, pollster Frank Graves says he’s seeing the worst level of despair since he began polling in the 1990s and says the challenge for the government is to provide optimism, security, and prosperity.
Thirty-five per cent of respondents were dissatisfied that the Carney government dropped all tariffs on goods from the CUSMA as of Sept. 1. And, 61 per cent of those surveyed also said they favoured taking a ‘hard’ approach with the U.S., according to Angus Reid.
This fall will be about proof. For all the talk of a fresh start, Canadians have grown skeptical that any government can deliver on the big promises.
In terms of results, the prime minister must find the right balance between dialogue and action.
Mark Carney’s first approval rating (57 per cent) falls six points behind his predecessor Justin Trudeau’s (63 per cent) and four points below Stephen Harper’s (61 per cent), but Angus Reid also says nobody knew who Carney was before March. Some 29 per cent disapprove of Carney, and 15 per cent are unsure.
Young male voters backed the Tories, while boomers flocked to the Liberals in an election that saw generations grapple with dividing ballot-box questions.
Polling last week showed the Conservatives led among those who saw a change in direction as the key election issue, but Abacus Data’s David Coletto said the Liberals held a far greater advantage among those who wanted action on the U.S. president’s threats.
‘The stakes are very high’ this election says Ekos Research’s Frank Graves, and voter ‘emotions are very important’ in driving how campaigns take shape.
