Gerry Nicholls
Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant.
Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant.
Rachel Notley’s watching Danielle Smith make bold deals with the federal Liberal government to help develop Alberta’s energy sector, the same sort of deals Notley tried but failed to make. But she was just the victim of cold political calculations.
The NDP’s massive loss in last year’s election might prove to be a blessing. Now, with nothing left to defend, the NDP can go on the attack.
In case you missed it, the former federal Conservative leader recently told the media that Pierre Poilievre needs to ‘moderate’ his political views. That counsel might seem totally reasonable. So why do I think it’s bad? There are many reasons.
When there’s no threat of an election on the horizon, political fundraising is tough.
Whereas Mark Carney seems to be at the forefront of saving democracy, Pierre Poilievre is complaining about mundane domestic issues. Voters pick up this sharp contrast, and it hurts Poilievre.
The Liberal government faces a tough road ahead, with plenty of potential pitfalls and tough decisions ahead. Despite how things look now, the Conservatives will likely still get their chance.
Battling against Avi Lewis will also help conservative premiers, such as Alberta’s Danielle Smith and Ontario’s Doug Ford. Whether federal or provincial, nothing excites conservative bases more than fighting the hard left.
So far, it seems the Conservatives are not exactly dismissing the polls like John Diefenbaker once did, nor are they talking about their own internal polls, but they are trying to make it clear that all the bad numbers splashing around the media aren’t causing them to panic.
The Liberals are facing off against a hated foreign foe, they have an energetic leader in charge, and their base is highly motivated. This is what you call a perfect political storm.
As writer Patrick Luciani recently put it, ‘Canada’s major parties are converging on shared liberal terrain where their battles are more stylistic than substantive.’ Perhaps this is why it’s so easy for opposition MPs to cross the floor and join the Liberals.
Whatever wounds Mark Carney is receiving for changing course on the Iran war will likely heal quickly, especially if his new stance is more in line with public attitudes and with the attitudes of his own party. He’s already getting some positive press.
These online media/advocacy influencers aren’t really like the media because they don’t provide balanced information, nor are they really like advocacy groups because they don’t seek to persuade the public. The upshot of all this is that political polarization increases, as everybody starts to see the other side as the enemy. This is not good for democracy.
This is a good lesson for communication strategists trying to garner media attention for a client: if you want to make news, either pick a fight or raise lots of money.
When Stephen Harper retired from politics, he put aside his brawler persona and took on the role of a wise elder statesman, whose portrait is now hanging in Parliament. He’s even getting positive media attention for his recent forceful comments on world affairs.
If the No. 1 issue in the next election is protecting Canada from Donald Trump, and if Mark Carney is seen as the most capable one to do that, that’s a huge advantage for the Liberals. The Conservatives’ only glimmer of hope is if the economy becomes more of a concern.
