‘From disaster to dominance’: Carney Liberals enjoy decade-high polling, but unpredictable events could undermine electoral fortunes, say political players

Pollsters point to affordability challenges and the potential for rising unemployment rates as circumstances that could derail the Liberals' popularity. 'There are a lot of, I'll call it, negative uncertainties out there that will start to pile up. That's why I said it's going to be interesting to see how patient Canadians will be with Mark Carney,' says Nik Nanos.

Mark Carney, pictured walking into the West Block on Parliament Hill, is enjoying a high double-digit lead in the polls right now, but future potential pitfalls like a recession, increasing job losses, and higher gas prices could negatively affect the Liberal Party’s electoral fortunes, says pollster Frank Graves.The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade

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BY ABBAS RANA

March 23, 2026

As Mark Carney hits his one-year mark as prime minister and the Liberals reach their strongest levels of support in a decade, polls show the party could win more than 200 seats if an election were held now. But, pollsters caution that events such as a potential recession, ri...

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