Carney can maintain lead by avoiding scandals, doesn’t need to ‘win’ in CUSMA review, but needs movement on trade, a major project by 2027, say top pollsters

Mark Carney is currently in a 'sweet spot' because it's still relatively early in his government. The time when Canadians could start getting hungry to see results from the prime minister on major projects, such as oil pipelines, might not be until next year, says Nik Nanos.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, pictured on the Hill on May 6, 2026. 'To maintain the [high polling] numbers, the Carney government … cannot make mistakes. The thing is that every government hits a controversy, without exception,' says pollster Nik Nanos.The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade

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BY JESSE CNOCKAERT

May 11, 2026

The Liberals' double-digit lead in the polls is likely to hold in the near-term, so long as Prime Minister Mark Carney and his government can avoid any scandals, say top pollsters.

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