Liberal lead over Conservatives could show ‘crack in the armour’ depending on U.S. trade talks outcome, say strategists, pollsters

The clock is ticking down to an Aug. 19 deadline when U.S. President Donald Trump threatens to impose 50-per-cent duties on more than $20-billion worth of Canadian exports.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, left, and U.S. President Donald Trump. Even if Canada doesn't achieve a 'measurable note of success' in negotiating a deal, a part of the Liberal base would likely excuse it, saying that 'no one could get a deal with this guy,' says Conservative strategist Cole Hogan. The Hill Times photographs by Andrew Meade and photograph courtesy of the White House/Daniel Torok

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BY JESSE CNOCKAERT

August 16, 2026

The lead Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals hold over the Conservatives is in part attributable to whom Canadians most trust to address looming tariff threats from the United States, although pollsters and strategists have mixed views on how significantly that lead ...

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