SCARBOROUGH, ONT.—Prime Minister Mark Carney was at his erudite best in Davos recently. He brilliantly dismembered the old world order and, with equal skill, articulated the new world (dis)order. He buttressed his speech with classical and moral references, invoking the stark clarity of Thucydides: “The strong do what they will; the weak suffer what they must.” He also drew on Václav Havel’s parable of the greengrocer who hangs a sign each morning reading “Workers of the world, unite,” knowing it to be false, yet sustained by a quiet, collective agreement to live within that falsehood.

As proud as we are of a prime minister who can speak at the prestigious World Economic Forum and receive a standing ovation, one could be forgiven for wondering whether the speech landed elsewhere. It certainly irritated United States President Donald Trump, and likely generated a fresh round of random rhetorical shots. Insofar as Trump has a doctrine, what comes to mind is Peaky Blinders‘ Alfie Solomons’ “big f**cks small.”

There may well be consequences. But it is reasonable to assume that Carney has already downgraded his expectations for CUSMA negotiations. By actions—and now by words—he has served notice that Canada will vigorously pursue alternative trade arrangements—and possibly security arrangements, as well.

If I have a criticism, it is this: the Carney Doctrine—everyone (and everyone seems to have a doctrine these days)—needs to be communicated to the average Canadian in everyday, understandable language.

Nineteenth-century English judge Lord Bowen articulated the measure of tort liability by reference to what a “reasonable person,” ordinarily educated, but otherwise undistinguished, might think: the proverbial man on the Clapham omnibus. For my purposes, the question is simpler: how would the Carney Doctrine be explained to the reasonable person on the Morningside bus in Scarborough? (I confess a particular fondness for Scarborough.)

To borrow (irony understood) an American idiom: will it play in Peoria? Or, in our case, will it play in Scarborough? I think it will because there are many reasonable, ordinary, educated, but otherwise undistinguished people in Scarborough who want to hear what the prime minister has to say about the world—the new world (dis)order. More importantly, they want to know how it will affect them.

How does a trade arrangement with China intersect with foreign interference concerns in communities like Scarborough that have significant Asian populations?

Will my formal—or informal—boycott of all things American continue?

Are the layoffs at my company permanent now that CUSMA is in jeopardy?

Will my grocery bill go up or down if we import more from outside the U.S. and sell more goods to countries other than the U.S.?

If NATO security arrangements continue to fray, will my son or daughter be subject to a draft?

What is a hegemon?

There are dozens more questions that could—and will—be asked as the Carney Doctrine takes shape.

There are also unexpected opportunities. Ontario colleges, for instance, have just agreed to become a training centre for aeronautical and marine engineers and technicians. The Navy and Air Force are acutely aware that they cannot meet government expectations without reopening and ramping up training in vital trades. Negotiations for submarines represent a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for nimble companies to secure contracts—and the jobs that come with them.

While I don’t think the prime minister should do a pub crawl through Scarborough, he does need to find more opportunities to meet the reasonable person on the Morningside bus.

Ask that person, “What is the Carney Doctrine?”

The most likely response: “I don’t know.”

That will not do.

This cannot be a one-off. The chaos will continue for at least three more years, and perhaps longer. Whatever the resolution on Greenland—and at the moment it looks like a classic TACO moment (Trump Always Chickens Out)—Canada will remain in the crosshairs. We are the big prize.

“Elbows up” may have begun as a metaphor, but it is fast becoming a permanent part of the political lexicon. Under Trump’s bargaining doctrine—lifted straight from his ghostwritten Art of the Deal—thinking big, psychological warfare, and winning are the point.

Prime Minister Carney has explained the Carney Doctrine to the elite of the world. Now he needs to explain it plainly, repeatedly, and locally.

John McKay is the former Liberal Member of Parliament for Scarborough–Guildwood, Ont., and was the Canadian co-chair of the Canada-U.S. Inter-Parliamentary Group.

The Hill Times