If our military spending continues to rely on American-centric ecosystems, Ottawa risks ‘hardening’ a state of managed subordination, making it difficult for Canada to pivot when national interests diverge.
Mark Carney may believe calibrated alignment buys time and space. The risk is that, in a world of strategic realism, shades of grey can gradually harden back into dependency.
Russia’s economic trajectory is uncertain. Some analysts expect deterioration in 2026; others foresee relative stability. If Russia faces a downturn, a ‘hurting stalemate’ may emerge, creating incentives for compromise. But at present, no such ripe moment exists. The key question is whether Ukraine and the EU can wait long enough—and whether economic pressure on Russia can be paired with incentives that limit negative outcomes for both sides.
A structured timeline for peace talks is essential to maintain momentum and prevent deadlock.
The U.S. is waking up to the fact that being a hegemonic power requires a lot of effort.
The policy establishment finds itself desperately playing catch-up to the Trump agenda, coming to terms with the fact the U.S. is now in a position to inflict significant harm on the Canadian economy.
