Russia’s economic trajectory is uncertain. Some analysts expect deterioration in 2026; others foresee relative stability. If Russia faces a downturn, a ‘hurting stalemate’ may emerge, creating incentives for compromise. But at present, no such ripe moment exists. The key question is whether Ukraine and the EU can wait long enough—and whether economic pressure on Russia can be paired with incentives that limit negative outcomes for both sides.
A structured timeline for peace talks is essential to maintain momentum and prevent deadlock.
