Liberals have made a historic political comeback, but potential risks lie ahead, so don’t get cocky

Not taking Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre seriously would be a serious miscalculation, and the Liberals would do so at their own peril. The Liberals also should not get cocky.
Prime Minister Mark Carney was the key figure in the dramatic turnaround seen by the Liberals last year, but they have to remain vigilant for potential pitfalls, such as rising unemployment and affordability challenges that could sour Canadians on the governing party.

The last year-and-a-half has been unprecedented in modern Canadian federal politics. As recently as January 2025, the Liberals, then led by prime minister Justin Trudeau, were trailing the Conservatives by as many as 25 points in some polls.

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