Shifting demographics changing the math in bellwether ridings

Political scientists say that urbanicity plays a key role in determining bellwether ridings, while candidates say deep roots and strong campaigns can sometimes override longstanding patterns.
Conservative Marilyn Gladu broke Sarnia-Lambton's 47-year run as a bellwether riding in 2015 when she captured it for the Tories while the government went to the Liberals. Only a few true bellwether ridings remain across Canada.
Everyone likes a winner. But voters in a few federal ridings have proven remarkably consistent at picking the winner, going all the way back to the days when the elder Trudeau was prime minister. While there are a number of tight races for seats that are considered swing ridings in the current cam...

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