My election prediction: Conservative minority government

Prime Minister Stephen Harper can easily rely on a solid core of 25 per cent to 30 per cent of the Canadian electorate that is solidly behind him and the Conservative message.

TORONTO—Not too long ago, the government of the day had been in power for quite some time. Its new leader seemed to be languishing, and a more focused opposition party was quickly gaining traction. An astute political observer said to me, “you know, Jeremy, come election day, there w...

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