Kevin Lynch
Kevin Lynch is vice chair, BMO Financial Group, and former Clerk of the Privy Council. This was originally published in the most recent issue of Policy magazine, edited by L. Ian MacDonald.
At this ‘hinge moment’ in our history, it is time for Canadians to write the next chapter for ourselves.
If we are to achieve the ambition Mark Carney laid out so eloquently and clearly for Canada to set out its own path as a middle-power, we also need to start asking ourselves questions about risks to our policy sovereignty. Donald Trump’s newest threat to put a 100 per cent tariff on all Canadian imports if Canada makes a trade deal with China is such a threat to Canada’s policy sovereignty.
Several things made these missions of the past unique: led by the prime minister, joined by cabinet ministers, premiers, and hundreds of business leaders, they created a marketing buzz wherever they touched down.
First, to achieve the generational pivot the times demand, Canada needs government operating at its best, with focused federal political leadership, bold policies, federal-provincial alignment and government-business collaboration—something that has been lacking in recent years.
The Carney government has much riding on the reaction to its fall budget. So, too, do Canadians as they wait to see what the future holds.
Canada could revisit its industrial policy and consider a new defence, dual-use, industrial policy. This would take advantage of the government’s already-announced commitment to ramp defence spending up to five per cent of GDP over the next decade.
The top issue in the next election will surely be the economy, but the second matter of public discourse should be protecting our national sovereignty.
Federal government spending, public service employment, and the national debt are soaring, but delivery of essential government services is sputtering, and the Bank of Canada has been left to fight inflation single-handedly.
As a recent World Economic Forum report observes, ‘The next decade will usher in a period of significant change, stretching our adaptive capacity to the limit.’
History shows that this bout of economic nationalism will pass, but just how or when is unknown. What is known is that nations need to plan for the risks of economic nationalism as it plays out in the U.S., China, and in Europe.
For Canadian politicians, the lesson out of the U.S. midterms is that extremism on the right or left is not the answer for the majority of voters.
