Ken Polk
Ken Polk is a public affairs counsellor with Compass Rose. He has served as a speechwriter and legislative assistant to former prime minister Jean Chrétien and as director general of communications for Health Canada.
As long as these Pierre Poilievre-driven dynamics remain in place, the NDP seems destined to be squeezed out in two-party Liberal-Conservative contests.
Pierre Poilievre will have to do much more than stand pat if he seriously plans on finally winning the Canadian political Super Bowl. Otherwise, he and his party may have to content themselves, like Buffalo Bills fans, with having come so close that one time.
The potential evanescence of a CAQ without François Legault in all probability increases the likelihood of a PQ win in October. Investors already concerned about that prospect will be looking to consider attaching an additional risk premium to any opportunities in Quebec because of the fundamental political uncertainty associated with a PQ win.
Unlike Steven Guilbeault, Mark Carney doesn’t have the luxury of enforcing a green energy litmus test on the Alberta premier. He has a truculent president to face down, an economy to save and a country to unite. In this context, Guilbeault’s departure is unfortunate, but unavoidable collateral damage.
Groucho Marx’s dictum works in Canadian politics. Principles are less important than results. The Liberals have always known this. Perhaps the NDP and the Conservatives will eventually learn this, too.
This percolating conflict must worry Pierre Poilievre and his team as they prepare for the leadership review in January 2026. It’s bad enough that the Conservative leader must face a membership denied what seemed certain victory back in April; he may also have to combat Doug Ford proxies who may want a narrow vote of confidence on the currently seatless party leader.
As you relax this summer, spare a few kind thoughts for the Conservatives. Their leader has shown he has nothing to offer them but that he is clearly ‘one of them’ and the promise that they will never again be able to feel confident of victory under his leadership.
Why did so many voters conclude that it was more important to stop Pierre Poilievre than to deny the Liberals a rare ‘four-peat?’ How can they win if federal politics are indeed a two-horse race for at least the near future?
While Trudeau may have decided the potential benefits of moving senior ministers outweigh the risks, it likely won’t be enough to dig the government out of its political hole.
Former prime minister Brian Mulroney has been famously quoted to the effect that in politics ‘you dance with the one that brung ya.’ Looking to the budget and the current legislative sitting, the Liberals have to rediscover their progressive roots and message.
