The United States: calculating things to come

I’d be less confident about saying no to an American civil war than I was in the old Soviet Union, because there I couldn’t figure out how people would choose sides. In the U.S., unfortunately, I can.
Portland, Ore., residents protest the U.S. president’s deployment of troops to the city to ‘protect’ an Immigration and Customs Enforcement facility on Sept. 28.

LONDON, U.K.—A Danish proverb says, “Predictions are hard, especially about the future,” but still we make them, especially when we care about the future. Here are some about the future of the United States in the next three-and-a-bit years, expressed as probabilities,...

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