Fertility rates at astonishing levels in shrinking Asia

If a country’s fertility rate (the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime) is 2.1, then the country’s population will remain level. Above that number, it starts to grow; below 2.1, it eventually falls. And something really significant is happening in Asia, where populations are in steep decline.

Populations in Europe are stable or gently falling, and in the Americas almost every country has a growth rate of less than one per cent. The only world regions still growing fast are the Middle East and Africa, where population growth rates are between 1.5 per cent and three per cent, writes Gwynne Dyer.

Opinion

BY GWYNNE DYER

January 25, 2022

LONDON, U.K.—In the politics of population, the magic number is 2.1. That is "replacement level:" if a country’s fertility rate (the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime) is 2.1, then the country’s populatio...

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