Trump: the odds

Outcome C: Donald Trump recovers, and is back out campaigning within a week. Probability: more than 70 per cent. Consequence: he still loses the election (just look at the numbers), but he is fit and able to build on the foundations he has already laid and lead a campaign from the White House (not necessarily non-violent) to dispute the postal vote.

U.S. President Donald J. Trump, pictured Oct. 4, 2020, during a drive-by outside of Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland. We must recognize the possibility that Outcome C in some form is already inevitable because Mr. Trump contracted COVID days earlier, concealed it, and is already safely past Day 10. In which case this entire drama is just pantomime, writes Gwynne Dyer. Official White House Photo by Tia Dufour

Opinion

BY GWYNNE DYER

October 12, 2020

LONDON, U.K.—Now is when it gets interesting. The announcement on Oct. 2 that U.S. President Donald Trump had fallen ill with COVID-19 hardly came as a surprise. His political strategy of playing down COVID-19 required him to be reckless about his own health, and other Republicans were already dr...

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